Earthquake Playoffs Scenarios

October 3, 2016

Want the Quakes to make the playoffs? Wondering if they have a chance? Here’s some information to help you out.

The current standings of teams yet to clinch a playoff berth heading into the bye-week are as follows:

Points Games Played Wins Losses Ties Points Possible
Real Salt Lake 45 32 12 11 9 6
Seattle Sounders FC 44 31 13 13 5 9
Sporting Kansas City 43 32 12 13 7 6
Portland Timbers 41 32 11 13 8 6
San Jose Earthquakes 37 31 8 10 13 9

The current red-line is 43 points.  Due to tie-breaks, San Jose must finish with at least 44 points to have any chance, and have a better chance with 46 points. Currently there are three spots available

San Jose wins all three games (46 points) . . .

Each scenario would eliminate a potential playoff spot for San Jose.

  • RSL wins/draws any of their remaining matches
  • Portland wins both of their remaining matches
  • Seattle wins any of their three remaining games, or gets two draws in three of their remaining games
  • Sporting KC beats Real Salt Lake prior to their season finale against San Jose (of which San Jose goes on to win)

SO! Even if San Jose wins out, if three of those four scenarios happen, San Jose would be eliminated from the playoffs regardless of their record.

San Jose wins two and draws one of their remaining games (44 points) . . .

Portland must not win either of their remaining games AND Sporting KC must not win or draw Real Salt Lake.

SO! If Portland wins any remaining games, or Sporting KC earns points against RSL, the Quakes would be eliminated despite earning seven points in their final three games.

If San Jose loses ANY of their remaining three games: 43 points possible

San Jose would lose on tie-breaks regardless of standings of Portland and/or Sporting KC.

TLDR Version

Even if San Jose wins out, they still have a lot of praying to do in order to make the playoffs.  If San Jose gets two wins and one draw, they must hope both Portland loses two in a row AND Sporting KC loses to RSL. If San Jose loses any matches, they are done.

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