Revolution Prematch Predictions

August 24, 2016

The Quakes take on the Revolution tonight at Avaya. I don’t want to say this is a “must win” game, but it is a pretty big opportunity to make up some playoff ground, especially with the loss to Houston. In fact, this is the second of four games in which the Quakes play teams with fewer points–although by the time they play Seattle, the tables may be turned against San Jose.

The Revolution are terribad this year. 8th place in the East, 26 points, and in the middle of a four-game losing streak. The Quakes just lost to Houston (HOUSTON!) at home. Expect things to change, and for the Quakes to dominate the match the way they should have dominated Houston. If things don’t change, and the Quakes roll out the “ineffective 4-4-2” as I’ve been calling it for several months now, expect another year without a playoff berth.

Predictions

Formation: HEY HEY! HO HO! THE (flat) 4-4-2 HAS GOT TO GO! The Revs lead all of MLS in goals allowed: 46. If Dom DOESN’T use an attacking formation to exploit the hell out of New England’s __________ defense (I’ll let you substitute the adjective), he should be fired on general principle. The Revs also lead MLS in negative goal differential: -17. Give me a 4-1-3-2 with a CAM and an order of fries, please. I don’t know what Dom will use, but I am predicting it won’t be the double 4-4-2 as Houston totally was ready for it.

Line Up: Bye, Quincy. I’ve been on the “Quincy Out” train for a while, and I’d be shocked if Quincy starts tonight, both from a statistical and strategic standpoint. Statistically, Quincy can’t put the ball on frame. One shot on goal in four games, 26% season conversion rate = time for Goitom. Strategically, Quincy needs rest. The Quakes have another game on Saturday, and Dom will probably rest some starters tonight so that they can play fresh on Saturday. Quincy will probably be on the bench, Dom will say it’s to give him a rest, not due to performance (which I won’t believe when he says it). I wouldn’t be surprised if Wondo is on the bench as well, although I’m betting he’ll start.

That said, here’s what I’d like to see: Dawkins finally at CAM, Tommy and Quintero on the wings (Tommy’s been looking god for Sac Republic), Godoy at DM, Wondo and Goitom up top. Defensively keep it the same: Cato, Wynne, Muma, Stewart. Bingham in goal. Maybe Francis for Stewart as the Geez has looked like may have strained something last game, but played through it.

Player Predictions: Goitom and Wondo both score, Wondo on a PK. Dawkins gets two assists in the central part of the field along with two key passes, Tommy gets a point (either goal or assist), and Bingham will get four saves on the night. Quakes get seven corners all game.

Final Score: Make or break time. Revs have lost four in a row, they’ll be desperate for a win, so they’ll probably manage a goal (Kamara), but I still say the Quakes score three. Quakes are at home, the Revs defense sucks, we’re looking for Houston redemption, and Goitom will be starting: 3-1 Quakes.

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